Posted on: November 12, 2008 3:30 pm
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Wed pics

I was waiting tonight for the line on NBA Phi v Tor to come out. I pay a lot of quarter lines in NBA because I find the 1st and 3rd quarters are generally the higest scoring and you can sometimes get good totals.

The game total came out as 185 -117. Which means the 1st Q total should be somewhere around 45/ 46. When its released jump on the over at that number. TOR plays up-tempo and is always good for around 25pts and after Phi last night laid an egg in the 4th and only put up 13 points they are gonna be coached to play hard from the start.

 Throw in TOR having a day off waiting for this game, and coming off a disappointing loss to the defensive minded Celtics 2 days ago, this game should appear in slow motion and points will come easy in the beginning.
Category: General
Posted on: November 11, 2008 3:32 pm
 

Tues Pics

After much deliberation and staring at the lines and researching for the last few hours, I found a game I rather like. Right now as it stands, with my loss yesterday on my NYR pick ( man if they cant win that game they are really in trouble ), Im 1-2. Hopefully will get even today.

I had 3 games that peaked my interest:

NHL TOR+125 v CAL
NBA UTA+145 v PHI
NBA LAL/ DAL o/ 49.5 1st Q

I've decided of those 3 play I like the LAL/DAL over 1st Q. Both these teams likely to score 100+. Kobe loves playing these guys and showing them up. DAL is trying to focus more on defense but I don't think the lakers are the team they can do it against. Emotions will run high in this game with both teams speeding up play and trying to outscore one another.

Take LAL/DAL o/49.5 1st Quarter -105.
Category: General
Tags: Tues Pick
 
Posted on: November 10, 2008 1:44 pm
 

Tough Day in Sports

Missed on my last qusrter play in NBA, by 2 points blah. Hate when I miss by so little a margin. Also you probably noticed I took Sunday off, decided to watch the games this week as I couldn't find anyhting I really liked.

Sched doesn't look very appealing today.

NFL: SF v ARI -9.5 o/47.5. Don't like either number or either side. ARI good at home but bad under the pressure of Monday Night game, SF just sinks this year. Total could go over, or if both team play bad, go way under. I see no edge in this game.

NHL: Only 2 games going tonight, and similar I feel there is no egde. EDM playing well with heart, NYR not so much but are a better team then they are showing. Yo'd think they will have a good performance tonight at home but -170 is a pretty steep gamble. EDM plaing 4th road game in 6 nights, 7 in 9, and last road game before going home. Did I mention its also the last of back to backs? Hard to see them performing very well tonight, but that brings me back to my point about -170,  maybe NYR -0.5 -110 in regulation is the play, still hesistant to recommend it.

NBA:  No spreads are attractive to me. -7 being the lowest today. I do have a recommendation on a quarter play though. TOR v BOS. BOS coming home from a brutal part of their schedule. A lot of travelling and 5th game in 7 nights, and on back end of back to backs. TOR playing back to back as well but they are sitting quite at 4-2 and have the fire power to compete early. you can grab +2.5 1st quarter now or maybe wait and see if it moves to 3. Either way I think they keep it close and maybe even come out on top after 1. TOR gets up tonight to play defending champs, who will be  alittle sluggish given there schedule.  TOR +2.5 1st Q.

College games Im not interested in as I don't know enough about the teams that are playing. Note that tonight is season tip off in NCAAB and will be adding those games into my blog as I disect winners.
Category: NFL
Posted on: November 8, 2008 4:16 pm
 

Game of Interest

Using the same logic as my last NBA pick, tonight PHO play MIL on the road. PHO laid an egg last game out and the total on this matchup has been set at 197.5. Both teams capable of hitting 100+ points,  and both allowing almost 100 against/ game. 1st quarter earmarked at 49.5.  These teams will both be running hard and I expect the score to fly over the total of the first quarter.

I know I said in my last post that I would point out 3 games per week that are playable, with weak lines. I'm going to change that to I'll post whenever I find something worth mentioning.

I am also going to amend my NFL pick on SUN, STL+9. Jackson is out so this is now a NO PLAY. I'll post an NFL play maybe later tonight.
Category: NFL
Posted on: November 7, 2008 4:37 pm
 

hi!

well, this is my first blog entry. I have been capping games in all major North American sports for about 4 years now. I enjoy following games and dicussing trends and picks, and mainly disecting why the lines are the way they are, and if theyy may be off on certain games.

Mainly Ill be posting on NFL for the next few months, with a bit of hockey and basketball thrown in. If I was to rate my sports and success rate of finding wrong lines it would be NFL NCAAF NHL  NCAAB MLB NBA. Hopefully along the way Ièll pick up some friends and this discussion board can grow.

Since this is my first post and my first week capping where people can track me, Im gonna keep things simple. Ill pick 3 games a week that I like and go from there. This week my picks are:

NFL: STL+9 v NYJ.
STL has had a good run since changing coaches with the exception of last week vs. ARI. STL was bound to run out of gas a little bit after upseting WAS and DAL and coming close to making it 3 in a row with NE ( which turned out to be a push or win depending if you got the early line at 7 or gametime line at 9 ). I believe that NE has a superior defense to NYJ, but the Jets have a little more juice on O. Lets call it a wash and a very similar scoring differential will result. Looking at  NYJ to win, but not cover. the is a 3 to 7 point game.

NBA: Friday TOR v ATL 1stQ over 46
Both these teams consistantly can score close to 100pts, but the total is set to 186. Average scoring combined is 200, average points allowed against combined is 180. First quarter total is set to 46. First quarter is usually TOR best, take the over 46. Only need 1 pt. to beat average score.

NHL: Sat NAS v COL
Im not sure what teh line will be set at but COL is loser of 5 in a row, NAS losers of 2 straight. I expect the home team to be favored by no more than -130. COL a tough city to play in on the last leg of a west coast road trip for NAS. Mile high city air will take its toll on this team late in the game and COL will squeek out a win... finally. COL to win this one 4-2. If total is set at 5.5 with low juice it would be a good play as well.
Category: NFL
Tags: NFL NHL MLB
 
 
 
 
 
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